Afghanistan is back on the front lines. And now let's talk carefully

Political Scientist, President of the International Foundation "First International Foundation of Development of Ukraine"

Mykola Volkivskyi
Number of posts: 7
Political Scientist, President of the International Foundation "First International Foundation of Development of Ukraine"

The abrupt change of government in Afghanistan came as a surprise, not because of the change itself, but only because of the short period of time in which the state was subordinated to the Taliban.

The previous emotional reaction of the public and restrained (or even illusory statements of politicians) created a powerful resonance around the topic, which does not subside until now. Some have blamed the situation on "untimely" actions by the US administration, some on Afghanistan's unprepared military, and still others on the indecision of NATO and Europe as a potential independent geopolitical actor. It is time to talk about the status quo from the standpoint of real calculations, first and foremost, for our country. elimination of their regime in 2001, with some breaks to our time).

Among those who maintained relations were Saudi Arabia, Qatar (it is in Doha that their office is located), Pakistan and Iran. The talks with Russia became more relevant after the new crisis in the Middle East - large-scale actions of the Islamic State and the danger of spreading the influence of this terrorist organization to large parts of Afghanistan, and thus Central Asia, which is Russia's sphere of influence (former Soviet republics). Several years ago, unconfirmed reports of arms transfers by Russia across the Tajik border to the Taliban to combat ISIS could be found in the media (no evidence was provided).

Second, the visual movement of the Taliban today is markedly different from that of the late 1990s.

As you all remember, the regime operated and even gained some international recognition from its neighbors, but it was destroyed because of its policy of supporting terrorist organizations and locating their headquarters in Afghanistan. I would venture to suggest that if certain organizations were not supported by the Taliban and the 9/11 attacks were not carried out, the regime would have acted with the accompanying concern that the world community would not respect the rights and freedoms for a long time to come. Today, the movement is just declaring distance from other extremists and publicly expressing a desire to resist any terrorists in its country. Requirements for the withdrawal of a foreign military contingent are embedded in the logic of the actions of a powerful internal force in Afghanistan.

Third, the symbolic proclamation on the symbolic date of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan means the building of a former Islamic state (not a terrorist state) with a characteristic legal system - Sharia law, which applies not only in Afghanistan. Of course, no one rules out abuse and internal cleansing, but it is too early to talk about it.

Now let's look at the situation geopolitically. The establishment of a new government is not complete - there is a resistance movement that the Allies can support if the Taliban does not keep its promises (including mass terrorist attacks against people who have sympathized with foreign armies for 20 years; will once again shelter terrorists; arms trafficking and ideology to neighboring countries, etc.).The United States has aircraft in the region that can greatly change the domestic situation in the event of a new mass confrontation. Russia, in addition to wanting to return to the negotiating table with strong countries, is trying to get guarantees not to penetrate the movement and other terrorist organizations, to the north - to the Central Asian republics and the most heterogeneous Russia. The hypothetical recognition of the Emirate is also of interest to China, which borders Afghanistan. On the other hand, Europe's overly cautious statements contrast with its direct interests, because in the event of a new humanitarian crisis, it is the EU that will suffer from refugee flows. And let's not forget about the hybrid practices of Russia and its allies, who simply use the hostages of the situation for their political purposes, so it seems most likely that it is not the United States or Russia that will suffer the most from this state of affairs, but the EU.

What can Ukraine expect from all this?

We are convinced that Kyiv should never start negotiations on the recognition of the Emirate, nor even announce formal demands for such recognition. There are no strategic interests of Ukraine in this region, so with formal recognition it is quite possible to wait until the right moment when Kyiv will be fully convinced of the adequacy of the new leadership of Afghanistan.

our neighbors on the part of Russia and Belarus - the transit of refugees to European borders will cause much more tension than on the border of Belarus and Lithuania during the year.

Russia's and China's efforts to find channels of communication speak to their desire to settle official relations and, in the long run, deprive the actual Emirate of its sovereignty, so the country may soon become a zone of influence for a new global player. Again, Afghanistan's resources (and the entire related set) can be used destructively to achieve their goals - this includes drugs, the black market in arms, human trafficking, etc.

Ukraine must be prepared against all the actions of our opponents. Experience shows that these modes do not have red lines.

Авторы

Артем Олійник, політолог, асистент-дослідник Академії політичних наук України
Микола Волківський політолог-міжнародник, президент міжнародного фонду «PIERWSZA MIĘDZYNARODOWA FUNDACJA NA RZECZ ROZWOJU UKRAINY»

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